ABOUT
Predicting Prices
This analysis was to predict the median sales value of residential properties within 6 different zip codes across Ventura County, California. The data for this analysis was median residential sales values from Zillow.
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Each data set pertaining its respected zip code was transformed to fit for analysis, and tested for stationarity before applying an ARIMA model.
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Below are the results containing graphs.
RESULTS
Results from ARIMA model regarding West Camarillo
RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES
This model had a residual sum of squares value of .023. This indicates the amount of error in the model. A lower RSS indicates less error in the model.
COMPARISON GRAPHS
This is a chart comparing the model with the actual values.
ARIMA FORECAST
This chart forecasts the nest 3 years using the ARIMA model. There appears to be an upward trend, although it has somewhat of a high volatility on both the upper and lower confidence intervals.
RESULTS
Results from ARIMA model for Newbury Park
RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES
This model had a residual sum of squares value of .04.
COMPARISON GRAPHS
The volatility appears to be similar.
ARIMA FORECAST
There is a slight upward trend with somewhat of a low volatility compared with the other models.
RESULTS
Results from ARIMA model for North East Thousand Oaks
RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES
This model had a residual sum of squares value of .29.
COMPARISON GRAPHS
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ARIMA FORECAST
There appears to be an upward trend. According to the 95% confidence interval, it appears to have a large range further out in the prediction.
RESULTS
Results from ARIMA model for East Camarillo
RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES
This model had a residual sum of squares value of .058.
COMPARISON GRAPHS
Much of the volatility is similar.
ARIMA FORECAST
There appears to be an upward trend. According to the 95% confidence interval, it appears to have a large range in the prediction.
RESULTS
Results from ARIMA model for West Thousand Oaks and Westlake Village.
RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES
This model had a residual sum of squares value of .077.
COMPARISON GRAPHS
Some spikes are similar in the volatility and some are not.
ARIMA FORECAST
Both lower and upper boundries of the 95% confidence interval show an upward trend.
RESULTS
Results from ARIMA model for South Thousand Oaks and Westlake Village.
RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES
This model had a residual sum of squares value of .136.
COMPARISON GRAPHS
Sometimes the model was below the actual values and sometimes it was above.
ARIMA FORECAST
This chart show high volatility overall. Even with the high volatility, both the lower and upper boundries of the 95% confidence interval appear to have an upward trend similar to West Thousand Oaks and Westlake Village.